Correction May 14, 12:55 KST: The text “every one of a half-dozen instances since last summer” has been changed to “seven of eight instances since May 2019,” and “11 of 17 occasions since summer 2016” to “13 of 16 occasions since April 2017” after further review of the data.

Boats often used by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un off the coast of Wonsan have been active throughout this month and made unusual moves around the time of a mystery April 14 missile test by Pyongyang, NK Pro satellite imagery analysis showed this week, indicating his likely continued presence in the area.

NK Pro has also found evidence suggesting a naval facility in Munchon was involved in the April 14 test — which went unreported in DPRK media — and that those exercises may have taken place in the waters off the Wonsan-Kalma peninsula.

Extensive analysis shows that similar leisure boat movements at an exclusive villa in Wonsan and a nearby island near the Kalma peninsula have aligned with Kim’s public appearances in the area in seven of eight instances since May 2019, and many more dating back to 2013.

Kim has not made a public appearance since April 11, leading to extensive media speculation over his whereabouts.

South Korean officials have this week, however, emphasized they believe Kim has indeed been in Wonsan for an extended period this month, with one adviser to President Moon saying Sunday that Kim had arrived in the area on April 13.

Kim’s leisure boats

Kim Jong Un’s main Wonsan villa has in recent years typically made use of one leisure boat while two others, one or both together, have moved from a dock in the city center out towards a nearby island.

The villa is located across from the Songdowon International Children’s Camp and connected to a horse-riding track which NK Pro revealed in January had been newly built to replace a private airstrip, itself only built a few years earlier.

It has also notably been referred to as the “Hyangsan villa” in the past, suggesting that source claims in last week’s initial reports that Kim had flown to a “Hyangsan” private clinic in a town of the same name north of Pyongyang for an emergency heart procedure on April 12 may have simply confused the two.

Writing for NK Pro sister site back NK News in 2013, North Korea satellite imagery analyst Curtis Melvin revealed details of the main leisure boat used at the villa — a 60-meter-long raft seen during a visit by U.S. basketball star Dennis Rodman and believed to house a pool under a covered area.

Another private dock in the central Wonsan bay, where some of Kim’s other similar private-use boats and yachts are stored, was also detailed at the time and in an article from Melvin’s North Korea Economy Watch in 2018, which further revealed the boats often travel to Tae island off the Kalma peninsula.

And when the boats have moved out to these locations — including this month — there has been a high correlation with Kim’s public appearances in the area, extensive analysis of satellite imagery revealed.

NK Pro has confirmed Kim’s presence in or near Wonsan on 13 of 16 occasions since April 2017 at times when the boats were out over a length of time in daily Planet Labs medium-resolution satellite imagery, and in three of six previous instances since spring 2013 shown in single Google Earth historical high-resolution images.

In some of the unconfirmed cases, Kim made appearances elsewhere along the east coast around the same time, such as in Hamhung or Sinpho to the north, though their distances make it difficult to determine if the DPRK leader was traveling back to the Wonsan villa.

There are also some instances, however, where Kim was known to be out of town while the boats stayed out longer after the leader left the Wonsan area.

In one particularly unusual case coinciding with his trip to Vietnam from late February to early March last year, the leisure boat appeared beyond a protective perimeter in the villa’s private bay in a manner not seen before or since, potentially indicating someone else was staying there at the time.

Since last July, however Kim has been confirmed in the area in seven of eight occasions where one of the boats was parked perpendicular to the private beach at the villa and where other boats appeared at Tae island.

In all of the 13 confirmed cases using Planet imagery, NK Pro has found that the appearance and return to storage of the boats closely aligns — but not perfectly, owing also to periods of no appearances — with Kim’s known arrival and departure dates in the area. 

There was also a recent instance where the boat came out in the last half of May 2019 at a time Kim was out of the public eye for an extended period, and from late June through mid-July when he held summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump.

If present during those times, Kim may have been using the villa to relax or prepare.

Following a report on another indicator — a train believed to be used by Kim seen at a private station adjacent to the Wonsan villa on April 21 and 23 — NK Pro analysis finds that a train has appeared there in the same time period as a nearby public appearance by the leader on seven of eight occasions spotted in Google Earth imagery since 2013.

Kim’s presence in Wonsan in April

Kim Jong Un’s leisure boat movements have displayed more odd patterns since being returned to storage March 16-17, Planet imagery shows, following a stint out at the villa and Tae island from at least February 27 that overlapped with four military drills on the east coast led by Kim.

But a 60-meter trapezoid-shaped leisure boat seen at the private bay in the Wonsan villa for decades was only parked in the covered area briefly in mid-March, before being towed to the storage dock further south, the imagery reveals.

Between March 30 and April 2, a 55-meter leisure boat that typically travels between the Wonsan docks and Tae island instead appeared at the villa, and has been there on every day of available imagery through April 27.

In the Planet Labs timelapse above, constant crane and small boat activity can be seen in the inner parking area at the south end since April 2, compared to far less activity between mid-November last year and February 2020.

Out at Tae island, the imagery shows that a 50-meter leisure boat also arrived there in the same timeframe on April 2, and was still visible as of Monday (timelapse below), showing frequent changes in position, and arrivals and storage of floating platforms often seen parked at the villa. 

For example, a platform is seen attached to the boat on April 4, gone until reappearing from April 8-10, and then seen in different spots attached or away from the boat, along with a second platform, from April 18-27.

This activity at the villa and island, given a high correlation of Kim’s appearances and such boat movements over the years, strongly indicate use of the boats this month and even in the last two weeks by Kim Jong Un and/or associates.

Mystery missile test

There was only one day this month, however, where the 50-meter boat disappeared from its position at Tae island: on April 14, the day North Korea was reported by South Korean authorities to have conducted a cruise missile test. 

That test was never reported by state media, leading to speculation that it had failed.

One image in the Planet Labs “Stories” timelapse feature shows that the missing leisure boat may have been parked under the covered area at the villa on that day, with something sticking out resembling how it looks when one is typically stored there. It was not visible at the city center dockyard on April 14 either. 

With a missile test reportedly occurring in the Wonsan and Munchon area, it is likely that it was moved to avoid damage during what appears to be military activities near Tae island and the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort.

One significant piece of evidence suggesting this is the case is the sudden and unusual appearance on April 14 at Hwangto island, just across from the beach resort, of what appears to be a naval ship measuring about 55 meters long.

A similar, if not the same, 55-meter ship appeared on April 13 at the at the October 3 Factory under KPA Navy Unit 597 at the northern tip of Munchon, and was at Hwangto in one April 14 Planet Labs image.

It was not seen in another taken that day provided through Planet’s timelapse feature, suggesting it could have been used in the reported drills or indeed appeared at the small island.

It only appeared at Hwangto, along with another unidentified object, on the day of the test and was also not at the naval facility in any of the available images on subsequent days through April 27.

The island was frequently used as a target for bombing in military exercises prior to the giant beach resort beginning construction in early 2018, and has undergone extensive construction work since last November (shown below).

The work lasted through February, according to Planet Labs daily imagery, resulting in a wide winding road built up the island’s mountain and a new structure along its western beach. Their purpose remains unknown, but appeared linked to nearly two dozen temporary structures set up for the construction.

It is also possible that prop-built destroyers were used during the drills, in a fashion similar to a June 2017 test which matched the ROK’s description of this month’s exercise. None were spotted, however, in the available satellite imagery, and may have been situated further off the coast if indeed used.

The following day, April 15, was ordered last year by Kim Jong Un to be the deadline for construction of the Wonsan-Kalma resort, which now appears to have been delayed.

Despite the DPRK leader’s proximity to the project in recent days, he appears to have opted not to visit the site. The 5.5-km long new beach resort appeared quiet in a high-resolution Planet Labs image taken on April 15 and reviewed by NK Pro, with no ceremony and fewer vehicles than have been seen previously.

Some have speculated that Kim may have been injured or otherwise incapacitated while overseeing the April 14 drills, with one prominent defector, a former North Korean government official, telling South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo that such large-scale tests would have had to be conducted with Kim present.

Kim’s last public appearance was at a Politburo meeting in the capital Pyongyang on April 11, while he led fighter jet drills north of the capital in Sunchon on April 10. 

He was last revealed by state media to be in the Wonsan area when he oversaw military drills just south of the city likely on April 9, according to NK Pro analysis, an event which also saw his leisure boats being brought out for use.

His previous public appearance in state media was back on March 21 for a missile test from the west coast.

Another missile test was conducted on March 29 from the Wonsan area, according to South Korean authorities, but Kim was somewhat unusually also not reported to have been present as state media provided little coverage of the event.

Edited by Oliver Hotham