North Korea is set to mark its 75th founding anniversary this Saturday, Sept. 9, with a paramilitary parade and other celebrations aimed at showing the population is united, armed and ready for war across every city and village.

NK Pro analysis shows that soldiers, likely from the army-affiliated Worker-Peasant Red Guards (WPRG) organization, have been practicing parade marching for longer than they did ahead of the Sept. 2021 paramilitary parade, possibly pointing to a larger event.

Tens of thousands of civilians have also joined training at Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square this week, where the parade will take place, while organizers appear to have set up a stage at the Mansudae Assembly Hall near the square for what could be another major patriotic concert, similar to one leader Kim Jong Un attended for the Sept. 9 holiday last year.

Along with sending a message of nationwide battle readiness to complement the military’s recent focus on preparing for “nuclear war,” Pyongyang could potentially up the ante by showing WPRG troops with newer and more advanced weapons.

It comes after South Korea’s underwhelming attempt at reviving civil defense drills in August but as the ROK, U.S. and Japan have strengthened trilateral ties and promised more military exercises to deter the North.

PARADE PREPARATION

North Korean state media officially announced on Aug. 10 there would be a “militia parade” (민간무력열병식) to mark the Sept. 9 holiday this year. 

The report used different wording than what it called a “parade of paramilitary and public security forces” (민간 및 안전무력열병식) for an event on the same holiday in 2021.

This may imply that this year’s parade will focus more on national defense and weapons and less on social security organizations such as police, firefighters and health workers that featured two years ago.

The WPRG is the country’s main reserve force, made up of workers and former military conscripts in units that are expected to defend towns, factories and businesses.

According to NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs imagery, North Korea began preparing for the upcoming paramilitary parade soon after wrapping up its July 27 full-scale military parade. 

Imagery shows hundreds of troop-carrying trucks absent from the Mirim parade training complex in southeast Pyongyang on July 28 after having been there for months during preparation for the military parade, before returning in smaller numbers by Aug. 4.

Block formations and lines of likely WPRG troops started to appear at Mirim on Aug. 9, though they may have started training earlier, and more appeared in images taken on Aug. 17 and 31 and Sept. 2. The appearance of troop trucks and the start of marching practices at least one month ahead of the event points to possibly double the preparation time for this week’s event compared to 2021, where trucks and troops only appeared at Mirim less than two weeks prior to the parade.

It is still unclear if this will result in a different scale or format of event.

There has not been any visible activity at a secured weapons garage compound at Mirim in recent weeks, suggesting there won’t be a large number of ballistic missile launchers at this week’s parade. This is consistent with the period ahead of the 2021 paramilitary parade, where the largest weapons featured were 122mm multiple rocket launchers towed by tractors and portable anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs).

However, one way Kim Jong Un could improve upon his previous events would be to equip certain WPRG units with even larger caliber rockets, after the 2021 parade showed WPRG troops with more and better weapons than before.

They could also show up with new rifles or communication equipment seen during a recent munitions factory visit by Kim and at regular military parades.

To enhance the message of reservist war readiness ahead of the parade, state TV last week released new footage of WPRG soldiers conducting field training exercises, running out of buildings with guns in hand, wearing camouflage outfits and conducting target practice. 

The parade could take place at night this Friday, like the 2021 event, which started before midnight on Sept. 8 with state media coverage releasing on the morning of the holiday. It could also take place Saturday evening with state media starting coverage Sunday morning.

OTHER EVENTS PLANNED

According to Planet Labs imagery, red and other colored material began to fill the area in front of the Mansudae Assembly Hall between Aug. 16 and 18, likely a stage for some sort of celebratory event for Sept. 9. Almost identical activity ahead of the holiday in 2022 turned out to be a stage for a large-scale patriotic concert attended by Kim Jong Un. 

Kim Il Sung Square nearby appeared to be filled to the brim on Sept. 5 with tens of thousands of people holding red pompoms, resembling scenes from both civilian and military-focused parades in the past. 

Images taken on Aug. 16, 17 and 18 showed what may be thousands of people in circular formations around the entire main square. This is more consistent with the appearance of formations seen during youth torch marches, suggesting North Korea could hold its first such event at the square since May 2021.

There could also be a civilian float parade before or after the paramilitary parade. Past such events have featured large and intricate floats with propaganda slogans and art promoting everything from nuclear weapons to farming. 

Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un is once again preparing to host foreign guests for the holiday events to show off international support for North Korea’s military development.

State media announced Thursday that a Chinese party and government delegation would arrive in Pyongyang soon. High-level Russian and Chinese delegations for the July 27 military parade were the first known foreign visitors to North Korea in 42 months. 

Planet Labs imagery showed activity in recent days at the luxurious Kumsusan Guesthouse in northeast Pyongyang — built specially for Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2019 — suggesting it may be used by high-level guests this weekend.

Dozens of buses also started to gather at the April 25 Hotel near the Mirim parade training complex by Sept. 2, a sign that domestic guests are arriving in the capital for the weekend’s celebrations.

Edited by Alannah Hill