North Korea is likely preparing to hold another military parade in the coming months, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery showing troop formations at a parade training complex in Pyongyang.

North Korea has used military parades in the past to boost internal resolve and show off its latest weapon developments to the world, such as its largest nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and new submarine-launched ballistic missiles at the latest events in Oct. 2020 and Jan. 2021.

Planet Labs satellite imagery showed what appeared to be dozens of military trucks and at least 14 groups of about 300 soldiers each inside the Mirim military parade training grounds on Aug. 30. The U.S.-based 38 North was the first to point out the troop appearance at Mirim in a tweet on Wednesday.

Images taken two minutes apart on the morning of Sept. 1 revealed the training is ongoing, according to NK News analysis. Square troop formations marched down the streets of the replica Kim Il Sung Square located in the complex, while the parking lot near the complex’s west entrance was full of buses. 

Since daily satellite imagery became commercially available in recent years, the combination of troop formation training and a full parking lot has only appeared just prior to a military parade taking place. 

The troop formation practices have typically begun anywhere from a couple of weeks to two months before a military parade, while other signs of increased activity at the Mirim complex, like temporary camps for troops, have appeared two to three months prior to an event.  

POSSIBLE PARADE DATES 

The start of formation practices in recent days points to the 76th party founding anniversary holiday on Oct. 10 as a likely date for the next military parade, especially since the same kind of formation training started around the same time last year — on Aug. 31 ahead of the Oct. 10, 2020 parade.

The 73rd founding anniversary of the DPRK on Sept. 9 next week is another possibility, after troop formation training appeared to begin earlier than usual at just around nine days before the Jan. 14 parade earlier this year.

But other dates are possible, especially since Pyongyang typically holds military parades on anniversaries ending in 5 or 0. 

Another significant anniversary falls just days before that this year: On Oct. 8, Kim Jong Un will celebrate the 10th anniversary of his father’s decision for him to become supreme commander of the armed forces. 

On that day in 2011, he had yet to become leader and his father, Kim Jong Il, was still alive. But the politburo belatedly “proclaimed” on Dec. 30 — two weeks after Kim Jong Il died — that the late Kim had bestowed the supreme commander position on Kim Jong Un back on Oct. 8. 

State media has continued to celebrate the anniversary in late December and not on Oct. 8, but there is precedent for suddenly changing holidays around to make room for a military parade.

In 2018, Pyongyang officially switched to celebrating army foundation day on Feb. 8 instead of Apr. 25 in order to hold a military parade on the eve of the Winter Olympics across the border in South Korea.

Meanwhile, Daily NK reported in June that North Korea’s military was already starting preparations for its “largest” ever parade, to be held on April 15, 2022 for the 110th birthday of DPRK founding president Kim Il Sung.

Edited by Bryan Betts. Updated at 14:05 KST on Sept. 2.