North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress appears set to begin in the first half of February, according to NK Pro analysis, as officials gather for preparatory meetings and military parade practices continue in the capital.

State media reported on Saturday that city and county-level party officials conducted meetings and conferences to prepare for the congress on unspecified dates in recent weeks. 

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) added that provincial-level conferences would “now” take place, again without mentioning dates, locations and other details like topics of discussion. 

Based on preparations for the previous two party congresses held under Kim Jong Un in May 2016 and Jan. 2021, it appears that provincial-level meetings will run for around a week followed by the congress starting about a week after that. 

If the meetings start this week, the congress will likely begin sometime in the second week of February.

The provincial level conferences began four days after state media reported on the city and county level meetings in 2016. 

State media published individual reports on the provincial meetings ahead of the 2016 congress, but it only recapped the meetings in a single report before the 2021 congress.

Following the preparatory meetings, KCNA reported that the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Political Bureau had made a final decision on a specific start date for the congress in 2016, and a more general time of month for the 2021 event. 

The congress kicked off nine days after KCNA released its report on the politburo’s final decision in 2016, and six days after the similar report in 2021.

If it is like the 2021 event, the coming congress will likely meet for daily sessions for a week or more, culminating with a military parade.

MILITARY PARADE TRAINING

Thousands of soldiers have been conducting daily training for a military parade at the Mirim training base in southeast Pyongyang since early November, and NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery suggests it is for an event related to the congress.

Planet Labs imagery has revealed marching practices that involve over 40 block formations of troops, equal to over 11,000 participants. 

It also shows around 450 to 500 troop transport trucks parked since mid-November in the open lots surrounding Mirim’s replica of Kim Il Sung Square, the usual parade venue in central Pyongyang.

This number suggests the upcoming parade will be similar in size and scale to the post-congress parade in 2021 and smaller than other parades held on national holidays, like the most recent one on Oct. 10 that involved 600 to 700 trucks.

But the number of trucks is greater than the 300 or so seen at Mirim before paramilitary parades, raising the likelihood that the coming event will be a full military parade involving various marching units representing corps commands and special forces.

The parade will likely showcase nuclear missiles, launch vehicles and other weapons, but perhaps fewer systems than last October’s event. It may even reveal new weapons or focus more on priorities delineated in state media’s congress coverage.

Markings on the ground at the Mirim base, visible in satellite imagery, suggest the coming parade is indeed meant to celebrate the Ninth Party Congress. 

Authorities have also held military parades on the Feb. 8 military foundation day holiday and former leader Kim Jong Il’s Feb. 16 birthday, but not typically on years that don’t end in five or zero. Next month marks the 78th founding anniversary of the military and Kim’s 84th birthday.

Given that training started around Nov. 5, a parade in the second or third week of February would make the current training period one of the longest ever. But it would be similar to the 14 weeks between the arrival of trucks at Mirim and the Oct. 10 parade last year.

A parade in mid-February would also fall around eight weeks after the first signs of full-scale block formation marching practices at Mirim on Dec. 21, at the high end of the typical range for such training ahead of past parades, according to NK Pro analysis.

Edited by Bryan Betts