Editor’s note: NK Pro will go live the moment the Oct. 10 parade broadcast begins, providing real-time commentary and analysis. Register here for access.

North Korea appears set to hold a large-scale parade to mark the 80th founding anniversary of the ruling party on Friday, serving up a spectacle of military might in front of dignitaries from across the world.

The anticipated parade will commemorate the alleged foundation of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea on Oct. 10, 1945, one of North Korea’s most significant holidays — though the actual founding of the party took place four years later on a different date.

Under Kim Jong Un, the holiday has grown in significance as an occasion to showcase the DPRK’s expanding military capabilities. Delegations from countries with close ties to North Korea have traveled to Pyongyang for Friday’s anniversary celebrations, allowing the regime to underscore its nuclear status with its latest ballistic missiles and promote weapons sales to international partners.

Ahead of the celebrations, which could take place any time any time between Thursday night and Friday, the following NK Pro analysis explains the significance of the event, what will likely be on display and how to watch the parade.

ABOUT THE PARADE

As is common for major North Korean holidays, the state ramps up the scale of Party Foundation Day festivities for significant anniversaries that are multiples of five, like this year’s 80th anniversary.

As for the 70th anniversary in 2015 and the 75th anniversary in 2020, Pyongyang is expected to host a large-scale military parade in the central Kim Il Sung Square featuring its vast array of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and other weapons systems.

The celebrations will also likely include mass games, a youth torch march and other large-scale events promoting loyalty to the leader and the ruling party. A stage set up in Kim Il Sung Square confirms that the parade will go ahead. 

One notable difference compared to the 2020 parade and other major anniversaries over the past five years is that this will be the first truly multilateral parade since 2018. 

No visiting dignitaries could enter the country between 2020 and 2023, and since then only Russian and Chinese officials have attended DPRK military parades. But with representatives from Vietnam, Iran and several other countries joining this time, this year’s event offers Kim Jong Un a chance to showcase Pyongyang’s defense capabilities in front of top officials from around the world.

However, after delivering multiple speeches in recent weeks, it is unclear whether Kim will do so again at this parade. In 2020, he gave a tearful address expressing sympathy for the people’s struggles during a period of economic hardships, food insecurity and pandemic-related border closures.

Like previous anniversaries, there is uncertainty about the start time as North Korean state media has not announced the parade, but precedent suggests the parade could take place on Thursday night or Friday.

Before 2020, these parades typically took place in the daytime, often with visiting dignitaries in attendance. However, the ruling party’s 75th founding anniversary celebrations kicked off a new trend of late night parades.

Of the seven North Korean parades held over the past five years, two began exactly at midnight on the anniversary, while five — including the last four — began a few hours before and typically concluded as the clock struck 12.

With North Korean weather forecasts predicting heavy rains on Friday and at most light rain on Thursday, both the weather conditions and North Korea’s recent patterns suggest the parade could begin late Thursday night.

However, with foreign delegations still arriving in Pyongyang as of Thursday afternoon, authorities may choose to hold the parade on Friday despite the risk of inclement weather.

WHAT TO EXPECT

North Korea’s past parades have served as a showcase for its latest ballistic missiles and conventional weapons systems spanning the army, air force and navy.

NK Pro’s analysis of satellite imagery in early September showed around 550 trucks and hundreds of lines of marching soldiers appearing at the Mirim military parade training grounds in southeast Pyongyang, indicating this year’s parade will also feature a significant military focus.

The report followed months of satellite imagery pointing to preparations for the parade, including the construction of an upgraded viewing stand to oversee the training at Mirim and trucks bearing troops.

In the final year of North Korea’s current five-year plan, Friday’s parade will likely showcase many of North Korea’s priority weapons development initiatives.

The showstopper could be the next-generation Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Kim Jong Un inspected last month. 

However, the leader’s hint of “secret weapons” in development during a speech in late September opens up the possibility of an as yet unrevealed missile as the headliner, much like the reveal of the massive Hwasong-17 ICBM for the first time at the 2020 parade.

Other recent nuclear-capable missiles such as the liquid-fuel Hwasong-17 and the solid-fuel Hwasong-18 and Hwasong-19 ICBMs may also make an appearance, as well as staples of past parades such as the Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

An ongoing defense expo in Pyongyang has also offered glimpses of the weapons systems and artillery the regime may want to showcase in front of visiting officials from friendly states — and potential customers — such as Russia, China and Iran.

The exhibition featured solid-fuel intermediate and long-range nuclear missiles like the Hwasong-16B, cruise missiles such as the Hwasal, Pulhwasal and Padasuri series, various SLBMs and the the Hwasong-11 series of short-range ballistic missiles that Russian forces have used in the Ukraine war.

It also showcased North Korea’s advances in unmanned systems, including a new unmanned surface vehicle, the Haeil series of unmanned underwater vehicles and several aerial drones developed over the past two years.

Satellite imagery of Pyongyang shows no signs of temporary shelters being built for the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), suggesting these in-development drones — a key component of Kim’s weapons development agenda — may not feature in the parade. 

However, it is possible the military may have found other ways to transport the UAVs, or may even fly them along the parade route rather than driving them down the road.

In addition to flaunting its latest weapons, the regime may use the occasion to play up its blossoming military cooperation with Russia and pay tribute to North Korean soldiers who lost their lives in the Ukraine war.

In past parades, DPRK troops have held up portraits of heroes from past wars, and will likely accord their comrades who fought alongside Russian forces the same honor in line with the leader’s recent drive to lionize these soldiers.

HOW TO WATCH

It remains to be seen when and how North Korea will report on the parade, as it typically avoids streaming such events live in an apparent bid to control what viewers see and prevent potential mishaps being aired on TV.

For North Korea’s recent nighttime parades, the ruling party daily Rodong Sinmun has often been published late the following morning, a few hours after its usual release time of 6 a.m. Pyongyang time. Typically filled with dozens of parade photos and coverage of Kim Jong Un’s speeches, the newspaper presents the first glimpse of the festivities.

The state-owned Korean Central Television (KCTV) then airs a full — but edited — broadcast of the parade’s proceedings in the afternoon or early evening, showing the most prominent weapons systems from North Korea’s expanding arsenal, the leader’s speech and cultural performances commemorating the occasion.

Thus, if the parade goes ahead on Thursday night, the first footage will likely air on Friday afternoon or evening. If the parade is held on Friday, KCTV is unlikely to broadcast the parade before Saturday.

NK Pro will provide live coverage with real-time commentary as soon as the parade broadcast begins, and a KCTV livestream is also available to watch via KCNA Watch.

Colin Zwirko and Seung-Yeon Chung contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts