Many analysts of North Korea’s weapons programs took note of Kim Jong Un’s diktat, delivered during his 2018 New Year’s Day address, for the country’s “nuclear weapons research sector and the rocket industry” to produce “nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.”

The order wasn’t surprising. After reaching a point in 2017 where he became satisfied with the qualitative capabilities of his nuclear forces—especially after the successful initial test-flight of the Hwasong-15/KN22 intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM)—Kim now needed to pursue the quantitative growth of his nuclear force.

If North Korea is