After launching missiles at a torrid pace in the first half of 2022, North Korea appears to be gearing up to conduct a nuclear test in the near future. Each of Pyongyang’s most recent nuclear tests in 2016 and 2017 garnered visible pushback from Beijing, but that likely won’t be the case in 2022. In fact, amid a hostile international environment, domestic challenges and growing Taiwan ambitions, China may even encourage North Korea to operationalize its nuclear arsenal.

At first glance, a DPRK nuclear test would seem particularly disruptive to Beijing. South Korea has already tilted toward the U