A recent paper in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists by Postol, Schiller, and Schmucker argues that North Korea’s recently launched Hwasong-14 is “not quite” an intercontinental ballistic missile but, rather, a clever hoax.

The authors don’t contest the fact that with a range of about 8800 km, this missile could reach the mainland U.S. West Coast and perhaps even beyond, but claim that it could only do so with a very small – hence non-nuclear – payload. They do, however, concede that the prospect of the Hwasong-14 delivering a nuclear payload to Anchorage, Alaska “cannot be categorically