On a sub-zero November morning in 2017, North Korea fired a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that flew thousands of kilometers before crashing back to earth. It was not clear whether the missile survived atmospheric reentry, nor did it chart a course further than the East Sea (Sea of Japan), yet the launch raised intense speculation that the Hwasong-15 could hit the U.S. mainland if fired on a flatter trajectory. 

Still, the test alone did not offer conclusive evidence of the Hwasong-15’s true intercontinental capacity, and North Korea has embraced a self-imposed moratorium on testing since