The DPRK has two major anniversaries coming up, and South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has warned the country’s National Assembly that on or near these important dates the DPRK might test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on a standard trajectory into the Pacific Ocean. The anniversaries will mark the DPRK’s Foundation Day (9 September 1948) and the Korean Workers’ Party’s Foundation Day (10 October 1945).

It has become commonplace for observers to speculate that North Korea will launch a missile or detonate a nuclear device on or near one of its big letter days. But how evidence-based