With the third inter-Korean summit wrapped up and a Donald Trump-Kim Jong Un meeting set to take place in the near future, the world is wondering whether this latest effort will yield a more positive outcome. Analysts are busying themselves with identifying black swans and integrating a series of hypothetical possibilities into convoluted forecasts with conditional predictions.

But the truth of the matter is that the solution to the success of the diplomatic attempt to resolve the North Korea situation is startlingly simple. The whole ballgame comes down to a single question: is Kim Jong Un willing