A U.S. soldier remained in North Korean custody on Wednesday after crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) during a tour the day before, in what appeared to be the first defection by an American service member in decades.

But NK Pro analysis suggests that the DPRK is most likely to release the man in relatively short order — though a lack of clear precedent means it’s still difficult to predict Pyongyang’s next steps.

Over the years, there have been several cases where people dashed across the MDL into South Korea at the Joint