Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations



Analysis Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea \| Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011) For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure. However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and Read More © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01Military dominates Kim Jong Un’s attention in his busiest year in nearly decade 02How Trump’s return could transform North Korea’s quiet ties with Thailand 03How Assad’s downfall could expose secrets of North Korea-Syria military ties 04All the companies that participated in the Pyongyang Autumn Trade Fair 2024 05No Chinese firms joined North Korea’s latest trade fair dominated by Russia 06What defectors’ exam scores reveal about the quality of North Korean health care 07North Korean Il-76 cargo planes make rare flights to northeast coast 08From aid to academia: The status of foreign organizations in North Korea

Analysis

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications

Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea | Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011)

For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure.

However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

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Chad O'Carroll