Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations



Analysis Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea \| Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011) For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure. However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and Read More © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01North Korea reveals new vertical take-off drones amid ‘modern warfare’ push 02How long-range strikes on Russia could impact North Korean troop deployments 03How North Korean hackers and IT workers collude to cause chaos 04What pro-Trump think tanks reveal about his likely North Korea policy priorities 05Yoon bet on US to deter North Korea. Now he faces an alliance skeptic in Trump. 06All the question marks hanging over Trump’s approach to North Korea in term two 07Time almost up for North Korea’s plan to launch 3 military satellites in 2024 08Trump return rekindles prospects of North Korea talks, but Russia stands in way 09How China could benefit from North Korea’s troop deployment to Ukraine 10New North Korean ICBM delivers big political message, and likely bigger payloads

Analysis

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications

Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea | Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011)

For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure.

However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

LATEST ANALYSIS

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Chad O'Carroll