Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations



Analysis Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea \| Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011) For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure. However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and Read More © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. LATEST ANALYSIS 01All the question marks hanging over Trump’s approach to North Korea in term two 02Time almost up for North Korea’s plan to launch 3 military satellites in 2024 03Trump return rekindles prospects of North Korea talks, but Russia stands in way 04How China could benefit from North Korea’s troop deployment to Ukraine 05New North Korean ICBM delivers big political message, and likely bigger payloads 06How North Korea-Russia ties will challenge next US president, no matter who wins 07What to make of the stunning collapse in value of North Korean won 08What to know about Kim Yong Bok, the man leading North Korean troops in Russia 09If Trump: How erratic leader’s reelection could scramble North Korea policy 10North Korea’s admission of drone incursion exposes glaring gaps in air defenses

Analysis

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

NK Pro analysis of open-source data shows turbulence in Pyongyang-Beijing ties which may have far-reaching implications

Chad O'Carroll September 20, 2024

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

North Korean and Chinese flags during the Arirang Mass Games in the May Day stadium, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea | Image: Eric Lafforgue (Sept. 2011)

For decades, the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been characterized as one of “lips and teeth” — a symbiotic partnership forged in the crucible of the Korean War. This special bond, which grew noticeably during the summitry of 2018/2019, has weathered geopolitical shifts, leadership transitions and international pressure.

However, an NK Pro analysis of recent open-source data suggests that PRC-DPRK ties are experiencing a palpable chill — one that is clearly notable from the spring of this year. From a sharp decline in bilateral trade and

Fraying ties: Quantifying the apparent deterioration in DPRK-China relations

LATEST ANALYSIS

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Chad O'Carroll