Editor’s note: This is the first article in a two-part series on North Korea predictions for 2025.

As the calendar turns to 2025, the Korean Peninsula is arguably entering a period of greater uncertainty than it has experienced in years.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House threatens to scramble U.S. policy toward both Koreas, testing the alliance with Seoul while raising the prospects of direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment has left South Korea without leadership at this pivotal moment, setting up a change in power to the progressive party