UPDATE at 9:19 a.m. April 16 KST: North Korea celebrated Kim Il Sung’s 110th birthday on April 15 with a civilian parade, but soldiers continue to practice military parade training nearby. April 25, the 90th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army, is the next likely parade date.

North Korea appears to be preparing to hold a major military parade this Friday to celebrate the 110th birthday of late leader Kim Il Sung, where tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians are expected to march through Pyongyang with the country’s latest guns, missiles and propaganda slogans. 

The following contains all you need to know about when the parade will likely take place, how to watch it with live expert commentary from the NK News team, what weapons Pyongyang may show off and what other events may take place around the April 15 holiday, the country’s biggest annual celebration.

PARADE DATE AND TIME

This Friday, April 15 KST appears to be the most likely date for the military parade because North Korea has held such events on the same holiday numerous times in the past and because satellite imagery has shown soldier and civilian parade training around Pyongyang growing in size and frequency in recent weeks.

Sources in Pyongyang told NK News they also heard nighttime flyovers this week, a common sight in the lead up to North Korea’s last three military parades, which all took place at midnight or in the evening in Kim Il Sung Square.

As Martyn Williams of 38 North reported on Wednesday, a stage appears to have been built in the square this week, and temporary red flag decorations typically used during parades appear to have been installed on the exterior of at least one main building in the square, according to NK Pro analysis.

If the pattern holds true, the upcoming parade will again take place at night, either starting late Thursday and running past midnight, as was the case with the Oct. 10, 2020 and Sept. 9, 2021 parades, or on Friday evening just after sundown, like on Jan. 14, 2021.

Since Kim Jong Un has surprised observers with new formats of major events in recent years, it could even take place for the first time in the early morning before dawn, timed to incorporate the sunrise as official state lore calls Kim Il Sung the “Sun” of Korea and the April 15 holiday celebrating his birthday is officially called the “Day of the Sun.”

Unfortunately for observers looking to make lunch plans Friday, state media released reports and photos of the last three night-time parades — where no foreign journalists were present — with delays of differing lengths. 

The first official reports and images of the Oct. 10, 2020 midnight parade appeared on Korean Central Television (KCTV) around 7 p.m. local time the same day (which NK News rebroadcast live with expert commentary). Online print media such as the Rodong Sinmun and Korean Central News Agency only released their reports after the two-plus-hour KCTV broadcast ended.

The Sept. 9, 2021 “paramilitary” parade also took place around midnight, but the Rodong Sinmun offered the first glimpse of the event at around 10:30 a.m. the same day followed by full video coverage on KCTV around 5 p.m.

For the Jan. 14, 2021 parade, which took place in the evening around 7 p.m., KCNA released a report and over 100 images by around 7 a.m. the following day, and KCTV aired the event in full later around 3 p.m.

Outside observers could see the first reports and images of this week’s parade as early as late Friday morning and as late as Saturday morning or afternoon, depending on what time it starts and how quickly state media editors work.

The last time North Korea put on a military parade in the morning was in Sept. 2018, when foreign journalists were still in Pyongyang and were able to beat state media coverage by almost a full day. 

Pyongyang also used to broadcast its military parades on KCTV almost in real time with only a short delay, most recently on April 15, 2017 and on at least a half dozen previous occasions.

Whatever time it starts, NK News will once again provide a livestream of the KCTV broadcast with expert commentators translating speeches, identifying weapons systems and discussing the significance of the day’s events. 

WEAPONS ON DISPLAY

Recent activity at Pyongyang’s Mirim military parade training base suggests over 10,000 soldiers from 40 or more army units and universities will goosestep through Kim Il Sung Square during the upcoming parade.

Activity specifically inside a secure area at Mirim housing heavy weapon and launch vehicle garages suggests North Korea will roll out its largest missiles after the soldiers. Pyongyang has used past parades to show off new missiles and weapon systems for the first time, and may do so again this week.

North Korea’s largest known intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is currently the Hwasong-17, which first appeared at the Oct. 2020 parade and was tested for the first time just last month (apparently ending in failure).

Since state media has not clearly identified the Hwasong-17 as the ICBM with a “range of 15,000 kilometers” that Kim Jong Un ordered at the Jan. 2021 party congress, it remains possible that yet another new ICBM appears at the upcoming parade.

A new solid-fueled ICBM — another item on Kim’s party congress weapons wishlist — may also make an appearance after an ambiguous previous version last showed up at a parade in April 2017.

Other wishlist items that could appear for the first time this week include smaller, “tactical nuclear weapons” and new military reconnaissance drones or unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) — a weapon type that last appeared at a parade in 2013.

As for known weapon systems, North Korea could demonstrate its manufacturing capability by showing off a greater number of Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-15 ICBMs on their giant specialized mobile launch vehicles than at previous parades. Pyongyang rolled out four Hwasong-17s and five Hwasong-15s (one being a “backup” that didn’t drive through the main square) on their last outing at the Oct. 2020 parade. 

The DPRK could also display its new “hypersonic” missile developments for the first time at a parade, after having tested one design called the Hwasong-8 last September and a separate design twice in January. The upcoming parade may help determine whether the Hwasong-8 was discontinued in favor of the newer version, after both were displayed at a Pyongyang weapons expo last October.

North Korea’s latest submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) development is likely to appear at the parade as well. Pyongyang rolled out new, large solid-fueled Pukguksong-class SLBM designs at both the Oct. 2020 and Jan. 2021 parades, but has yet to test either, meaning analysts will watch for what designs appear at the coming parade to help determine the direction of the program as Kim pursues a solid-fueled, sea-based ICBM. North Korea also tested a smaller SLBM last October, which may make its first parade appearance this week.

In addition to the bigger weapons, North Korea has used military parades in recent years to show off new air defense systems, multiple rocket launchers and even small arms carried by soldiers. Portable anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), rifles and more seen at last October’s missile expo may also make an appearance.

THE KIM’S SPEECH?

The last time Kim Jong Un gave a speech at a military parade was at the Oct. 2020 event, where he shed tears before the crowd while apologizing for failing to improve the lives of the population amid economic problems and self-imposed pandemic restrictions.

If he delivers a speech at the upcoming parade, Kim will likely focus heavily on the subject of the holiday – his grandfather Kim Il Sung – and typical overtures to official state history and the “socialist revolution.”

He may also draw parallels to economic hardships of the 1950s post-war period — still a common topic in state media — and talk about expectations for society to battle foreign or anti-socialist ideology and sacrifice heavily to carry out his and the ruling party’s directions. 

If Kim does not give a speech, one of his top political or military officials is likely to touch on at least some of the same topics.

OTHER EVENTS FRIDAY

Besides the military parade, civilians may also participate in a “procession” through Kim Il Sung Square immediately after or the following day carrying political slogans and large, intricate floats. Pyongyang has rolled out such floats, often larger than a bus with mechanical moving parts and people riding on top of them, during parades for decades to highlight the most important political topics of the day, and most recently in Oct. 2020. 

Young children may also put on a “torchlight procession” at night on Friday or Saturday, carrying large, live torches and running around the square spelling out Kim Jong Un’s name, slogans and animated pictures for a grueling hourlong show. 

Signs have yet to emerge in satellite imagery that either a float parade or torch march will take place this week, and Pyongyang’s famous May Day Stadium has not displayed tell-tale signs of preparations for another round of the so-called mass games propaganda show, which last took place in 2020.

To celebrate the April 15 holiday, top officials and maybe even Kim Jong Un could attend a smaller, indoor version of the mass games including other artistic performances, like one that took place after the Jan. 2021 military parade.

AFTER THE HOLIDAY

After this week’s events, there is still another major military-related holiday soon after on April 25, when North Korea will celebrate the 90th founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army. 

Pyongyang is unlikely to host another parade of weapons on this date, but may carry out some other kind of military event to mark the day — even perhaps another missile test or nuclear test, as some analysts have suggested after renewed activity on these fronts in the last month. 

Edited by Arius Derr

Updated on April 13 at 9:36 p.m. KST