For decades, governments and investors worldwide have hoped that North Korea would follow in the footsteps of neighboring China and embrace economic liberalization (policies referred to as “reform and opening” in China).

Such change has often been thought to be close at hand: Kim Il Sung opened North Korea’s first special economic zone, in Rason, in 1992. For decades, economic plans in Northeast China have hinted at the prospect of stronger trans-Yalu integration. Kim Jong Un’s surprise visit to Beijing in March 2018 was seen as yet another possible turning point.

As Kim Jong Un