Official North Korean numbers on its COVID-19 outbreak appear wildly inconsistent and out of step with what is known about how the virus affects unvaccinated populations. New “fever cases” — a stand-in for suspected COVID cases — hit over 4.5 million as of July 13, but just 74 deaths have been reported. Further, state media reported that the country’s caseload began to decline at the same time it said the DPRK was “successfully overcoming” the virus.

While outside observers often question North Korea’s political intentions and note the lack of independent verification, the numbers are problematic for another reason: an