The U.S. presidential election is two months away, and there has already been a raft of speculation and concern — especially in South Korean media — about possible North Korean military “provocations” in the lead-up to the vote on Nov. 5.

However, a closer examination of historical patterns suggests that such fears may be premature.

Contrary to what many have suggested, North Korea has consistently waited until after U.S. elections before engaging in more aggressive or controversial military acts, such as major missile, nuclear or space tests. The timing of these actions suggests a deliberate strategy