North Korea will launch three new military reconnaissance satellites in 2024 to “powerfully drive the development of space science and technology,” Kim Jong Un announced at a major party meeting to round out the year on Saturday.

The DPRK leader also called for a “fundamental change” in inter-Korean policy and said unification is now impossible due to South Korea’s stance toward Pyongyang, according to a report in the party daily Rodong Sinmun.

The U.S. and South Korea are creating an “uncontrollable crisis” on the Korean Peninsula with “reckless anti-communist confrontation” and military activities, Kim warned, calling for an “offensive ultra-hardline policy” against Washington.

On the economy, the North Korean leader claimed that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 40% from 2020 to 2023, even as it mobilized to resolve a “serious food shortage” due to poor farming last year.

But state media’s report did not make any mention of plans to fully normalize travel to the country in the new year, amid questions about when foreign diplomats, humanitarian workers and tourists will be able to return.

Kim delivered the remarks in a speech at the conclusion of a five-day plenary meeting of the Workers Party of Korea’s Central Committee that ran from Dec. 26-30.

State media reported that the plenum looked to develop the national agenda for 2024 to push ahead major goals outlined under the five-year plan unveiled in Jan. 2021.

MILITARY AND SPACE

As in other speeches in recent years, Kim Jong Un portrayed the Korean Peninsula as “on the precipice of nuclear war” in his remarks at this week’s plenum, setting forth the rationale for the country to “further accelerate the radical development of national defense” in the coming year.

War is now becoming a “realistic concept,” not just an “abstract” notion, amid rising regional tensions, the DPRK leader said.

Kim instructed the North Korean army to monitor the changing security situation on the Korean Peninsula and prepare “more thorough military measures” in case conflict arises.

“[The military] should rapidly respond to any possible nuclear crisis and put continuous spurs to the preparations for a great event to suppress the whole territory of south Korea by mobilizing all physical means and forces including nuclear forces in contingency,” he said, according the official English translation of Sunday’s Rodong Sinmun report.

As a result, North Korea will boost nuclear weapons production capabilities in 2024 in line with its nuclear development plan, according to Kim.

“The pledge is about matching the readiness of the Korean People’s Army according to North Korea’s nuclear doctrine and the five-year military plan,” Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a project assistant professor at the University of Tokyo, told NK News.

He explained that this involves expanding Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile inventory, including the diversification of solid-fuel missiles and sea-launched capabilities, as well as completing North Korea’s “kill chain” designed to identify and attack priority targets.

The leader praised North Korea’s advances in military development over the past year, including tests of the Hwasong-17 and solid-fuel Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles and the unveiling of a new submarine and spy satellite.

The successful launch of the country’s first military reconnaissance satellite in November will provide the basis for three additional satellite launches this year, Kim said.

This aligns with his vow last month to carry out more launches “in the near future,” as the country looks to develop a constellation of spy satellites to improve monitoring of the U.S. and South Korea and support its missile targeting.

“Given North Korea’s strategic and operational needs, it will need to operate somewhere between five to ten satellites in total, so Pyongyang’s plans are a step in that direction,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

However, he added that even if North Korea succeeds in putting enough satellites into orbit, it must do much more to establish an effective system to utilize the satellite data.

Amid growing emphasis on strengthening the navy, Kim on Saturday called for a “revolution” in North Korea’s shipbuilding industry and enhancing underwater and surface military power.

He also called for further development of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare capabilities, after the military unveiled new reconnaissance and combat drones earlier this year, Rodong Sinmun reported.

INTER-KOREAN AND FOREIGN POLICY

Kim Jong Un once again used his end-of-year speech to deliver messages to South Korea and the U.S., continuing to condemn both countries’ “hostile” military activities and signaling no interest in restarting talks.

Demanding a “fundamental change” in inter-Korean policy, he rejected the concept of “unification by absorption” advocated by some in the South and claimed that Seoul’s policies are fundamentally the same under both conservatives and liberals. 

“Looking back upon long-term inter-Korean relations, our party’s general conclusion is that unification cannot be achieved at any time with the Republic of Korea,” the Rodong Sinmun stated, citing Kim.

“The national reunification ideas, lines and policies put forward by our party and the DPRK government over a long period of time, not 10 years but well over half a century, have always been the most just, reasonable and fair.” 

Fyodor Tertitskiy, a researcher at Seoul’s Kookmin University, said North Korea’s apparent acceptance of the two Koreas as different states incapable of reunification is more of a “tactical maneuver,” rather than a reflection of a change in attitude.

“Kim Jong Un’s recognition of the Republic of Korea being a state doesn’t signal contentment with coexistence,” he told NK News.

“Rather, he contends that Seoul’s stance obstructs peaceful unification, leaving little room for dialogue,” he said, stating that Kim’s statement echoes “familiar bellicose rhetoric” against Seoul’s conservative government.

He stated that if Pyongyang ever genuinely moves toward accepting permanent division, this could involve changing maps of the peninsula and potentially even a DPRK Embassy in Seoul. 

The expert added that state media’s description of an existing “state of war” implies a North Korean invasion is not imminent, noting that North Korea strived to appear peaceful before it kicked off the Korean War in 1950.

In Saturday’s speech, Kim Jong Un condemned the U.S. for its regular deployment of strategic assets to the peninsula and warned that confrontation could manifest at the inter-Korean border, after the two Koreas’ 2018 military deal on managing border tensions fell apart earlier this year. 

The leader called for adhering to the principles of “confrontational struggle” against Washington, and after a year that saw Pyongyang and Moscow drawing closer, he endorsed greater efforts to strengthen relations with “anti-imperialist and independent countries” that oppose the West.

ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURE

Kim Jong Un notably offered a glowing assessment of the country’s economy at the end-of-year plenum, hailing economic achievements in a year that saw trade bounce back after almost four years of border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Claiming that North Korea’s GDP increased by 1.4 times since 2020, he said 2023 was a fruitful year in achieving key objectives under the country’s five-year economic plan, including the advancement of key industries and the construction of tens of thousands of houses in the capital.

After highlighting North Korea’s “unprecedentedly arduous” struggles last year, Kim claimed the country made great strides this year to mitigate its “serious food crisis.”

The DPRK over-fulfilled crop production goals this year as it achieved 103% of the target, he said, describing this as the most “precious” achievement among the ruling party’s successes in 12 priority sectors.

In addition to building new apartments in Pyongyang, Kim praised the construction of 58,000 households in rural areas, more than double the previous year, and stated that the large-scale Kangdong greenhouse farm in the capital aimed at modernizing fruit and vegetable production will be ready by February.

He said the achievements of the past year have given North Koreans confidence that the country will achieve the five-year plan’s objectives, but called for a redoubling of efforts in the next two years to ensure success. 

Peter Ward, an expert on the North Korean economy and NK Pro contributor, said there are three likely explanations for the “huge” economic growth numbers reported by the Rodong Sinmun.

The first is that the DPRK economy is genuinely doing well, he told NK News, but added that this is unlikely.

A second possibility is that “these sectors were very unproductive and now they are a little less unproductive, with the results looking spectacular in relative terms” even though “the absolute numbers are modest,” he said. 

The third potential explanation is that prices set by the state distort the figures upward, Ward said, explaining that sectors that have high prices could be pushing up the overall growth figures.

LEADERSHIP CHANGES

Kim Jong Un emphasized the need to strengthen “rule” in North Korea’s administrative system, including the cabinet, in order to drive “purpose-oriented” economic development.

As part of efforts to strengthen the leadership, the plenum’s participants backed personnel changes across the party and cabinet.

Among the more high-profile changes was the return of Pak Jong Chon, the head of the Workers Party of Korea’s military guidance department, as a party secretary and politburo member. He was also elected vice-chairperson of the Central Military Commission, restoring him to a position from which he was dismissed at last year’s plenum.

Pak’s election as a Central Committee member confirmed recent signs pointing to his promotion, as he was observed standing in an area reserved for Central Committee members during a visit to former leader Kim Jong Il’s mausoleum on Dec. 17.

Ri Yong Gil, the military’s chief of general staff, appears to have been demoted from the politburo but likely retains his other leadership positions, according to Martin Weiser, an independent North Korea researcher and NK Pro contributor.

Weiser told NK News that the promotion of Pak Jong Chon and munitions industry department head Jo Chun Ryong to Central Committee secretaries and politburo members “underlines the increased emphasis on military affairs,” but added that Ri Yong Gil’s demotion comes as a surprise.

Other changes included the election of members and alternate members of the party’s Central Committee, politburo, secretariat and Central Inspection Commission.

The meeting also saw the election of new heads of departments under the Central Committee, as well as the dismissal and appointment of the heads of various provincial party committees.

Weiser highlighted the return of propaganda director Ju Chang Il, who was removed in June without a clear successor in a sign of a short-term punishment. He added that Central Auditing Commission chief Kim Jae Ryong now appears to head the party’s cadre department, whose head has remained unknown since its last director Ho Chol Man disappeared from public view last year.

Cabinet changes included the removal of vice-premier Ri Song Hak, who was also responsible for light industry, and the demotion of local industries minister Jo Yong Chol, who oversaw local food industries. These changes underscored this year’s efforts to resolve food production issues, according to Weiser.

Edited by Bryan Betts and Arius Derr

Last updated at 12:13 p.m. KST on Jan. 1, 2024 to clarify economic figures.