Think over the possibility of the Kim Jong Un government remaining in power for more than, let’s say, the next five years. What are the key issues? First, establish whether you are prepared to cast off the historical baggage of Kim’s father and grandfather’s considerable longevity. If the answer is yes, you may also be ready to conclude that the government of North Korea is not long for this world, at least not in its existing form. And once you reach that point, you’re going to need some evidence to support your position.

…since our information is imperfect and our prejudices manifold, it is easy to find reasons to declare the decisions of the North Korean government spontaneous and strategically questionable