North Korea reportedly installed the third and final stage of its long-range rocket as diplomats from the U.S., Japan and South Korea met in Washington to coordinate a response. The rapid installation has led some South Korean officials to say that if fueling takes place over the weekend, the rocket may be launched as soon as between December 10 and 12^th.

In the probable event that North Korea decides to ignore international concern and goes ahead with the launch, Lim Sung-nam, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security, said that the UN Security council should “take appropriate steps in case of a rocket launch in line with its presidential statement adopted after Pyongyang’s previous long-range rocket launch in April.”

That presidential statement, available in full here, only threatened to “take action accordingly in the event of a further DPRK launch or nuclear test.” What specific actions will now be undertaken remains unclear, but much likely revolves around strengthening existing sanctions that have been to date been ineffective.

However, one idea reportedly being discussed now involves financial sanctions based on the “Banco Delta Asia” model, perhaps the only time where financial pressure truly affected the North’s thinking (though even this is disputed). In that case, the U.S. Treasury Department seized $25 million in North Korean funds held at the Banco Delta Asia bank in Macau, leading to a furious response on the part of Pyongyang. This halted Six Party Talks for a year and North Korean participation in denuclearization talks only renewed after the money was released.

Yet even today’s situation, successful implementation of a similar financial freeze may not be feasible, as North Koreans altered the way it conducted financial transactions in the wake of the BDA action.  Outside financial dealings now run primarily through China, which has given no indication of being on board with any firm action against North Korea.

Thus far, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hong Lei, would only go so far to say that, “In the present circumstances, we hope all sides can be calm and restrained and not take any moves to worsen the problem.”

Picture: Pyongyang Times