North Korea has supplied as much as $5.5 billion worth of weapons to Russia since last year, according to a new report, underscoring how arms shipments and troop deployments in support of Moscow’s war in Ukraine generate revenue for the Kim regime.

In the report for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, the researcher Olena Guseinova estimated that the DPRK has supplied Russia with nearly 6 million rounds of 152mm and 122mm munitions, basing her calculations on the ROK’s assessment that the DPRK has sent 20,000 containers likely filled with artillery shells.

North Korea has also likely supplied around 100 KN-23/KN-24 ballistic missiles to Russia in two separate batches since fall 2023, according to the expert, while noting that a DPRK anti-tank guided missile carrier has been spotted in Ukraine.

Based on these estimates, Guseinova, a lecturer at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, placed the total value of North Korea’s arms shipments to Russia between $1.72 billion to $5.52 billion.

The researcher told NK News that she based her calculations on “data available online from open sources in English, Russian, Korean and Ukrainian, which includes official statements, leaked documents, academic articles and documentaries.”

She added that she gauged the financial value of ammunition from “general market prices, North Korean patterns from previous deals and recent Russian ammunition deals, particularly with Iran.”

“The counts for KN-23 and KN-24 missiles were based on deduction, accounting for North Korea’s tendency to sell arms in batches, a six-month gap in usage and estimated production capacity according to South Korean analysts.”

Guseinova explained that she assumed Russia purchased no more than two of the DPRK anti-tank guided missile carriers, “preferring to assess their combat effectiveness before committing to a larger quantity.”

Amid reports that North Korean troops are supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the researcher estimated that the DPRK could send 3,000 to 20,000 soldiers, who could earn the regime $143 million to $572 million annually.

The figure is derived from “Russia’s promise of a one-time bonus of $4,600 and a monthly salary of $2,000 for recruits,” reflecting an assumption that the payments will be fully directed to DPRK authorities, according to her report for the German think tank.

Guseinova said it’s more likely that the DPRK will send around 3,000 to 5,000 personnel, mainly officers and engineers, to gain experience and support Russian logistics.

“It is plausible that a small special forces unit might accompany this contingent, yet their involvement would likely remain limited to supportive or diversionary functions rather than direct combat roles,” she noted, pointing to the DPRK’s past practice of deploying soldiers to Africa and the Middle East.

But she said it’s “conceivable” that Kim Jong Un could send as many as 20,000 as part of efforts to prepare soldiers for war on the Korean Peninsula amid escalating tensions with South Korea.

Under this extreme scenario, Guseinova suggested Kim’s priority would be to “ensure that his officers return with valuable insights and tactical knowledge that can be transferred to North Korea’s own forces.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin could reconsider its stance on transferring conventional weapons to Pyongyang to modernize the DPRK army, navy and air force, though it’s unlikely to provide sensitive nuclear technologies, according to the expert.

She said such a scenario could become more likely if South Korea increases its support for Ukraine, though this “currently appears highly improbable.”

NOT ONLY MILITARY

Burgeoning DPRK-Russia relations since the start of the war in Ukraine have resulted not only in increased military cooperation but also “steady growth in commercial ties,” Guseinova found.

Bilateral trade reached $52.9 million between January and May this year, jumping from $34.4 million in 2023 and $3.78 million the year before, according to Guseinova’s research.

Russia stopped publishing official trade data with North Korea in March 2022, shortly after its invasion of Ukraine, so the researcher relied on public statements by key Russian officials to gauge the extent of commercial exchanges.

“While the 2024 figure of $52.9 million reflects substantial growth in commercial ties at the bilateral level, it still remains relatively modest … when compared to the substantially larger trade volumes between North Korea and China,” she wrote.

“In 2023, Russia accounted for just 2% of North Korea’s trade, while China commanded a staggering 97%,” Guseinova added, predicting that the “imbalance is unlikely to shift in Moscow’s favor in the near future.”

The figures do not account for ongoing arms exchanges as those “transactions involving weapons might be conducted through a Soviet-style barter system, or a mixture of barter and cash,” the expert explained, noting Russia may supply North Korea with food and oil in exchange for military aid.

The research comes as South Korea, the U.S., Ukraine and NATO have all said the DPRK has deployed soldiers to Russia as part of apparent efforts to support Moscow’s invasion.

NATO chief Mark Rutte confirmed that North Korean troops have arrived in Russia’s Kursk region, presumably to repel a Ukrainian incursion that began in early August. It remains unclear whether DPRK soldiers will see active combat in the occupied territories of Donbas.

Edited by Bryan Betts