North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.



Analysis North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change. History shows seemingly innocuous events can trigger political crisis, from the Arab Spring to collapse of Qing Dynasty John Everard October 21, 2022 SHARE COPY LINK FACEBOOK X LINKEDIN MASTODON A North Korean mass games performance in Pyongyang on Sept. 19, 2011 \| Image: Eric Lafforgue Diplomatic analysts sometimes talk of tinderboxes and sparks. A tinderbox is a state that only just manages to continue in its present situation, usually either because its economy is too weak to support the demands placed upon it or because its political system is only just coping with the stresses it faces, or both. Such states can continue for some time, but they are vulnerable to sparks — to events, usually unforeseen, that suddenly topple a political structure. The effect is often dramatic. States that may have appeared outwardly stable for a long time suddenly vanish or are plunged into chaos. Diplomatic analysts sometimes talk of tinderboxes and sparks. A tinderbox is a state that only just manages to continue in its present situation, usually either because its economy is too weak to support the demands placed upon it or because its political system is only just coping with the stresses it faces, or both. Such states can continue for some time, but they are vulnerable to sparks — to events, usually unforeseen, that suddenly topple a political structure. The effect is often dramatic. States that may have appeared outwardly stable for a long time suddenly vanish or are plunged into chaos. Try unlimited access Only $1 for four weeks Unlimited access to all of NK News: reporting, investigations, analysis Year-one discount if you continue past $1 trial period The NK News Daily Update, an email newsletter to keep you in the loop Searchable archive of all content, photo galleries, special columns Contact NK News reporters with tips or requests for reporting Get unlimited access to all NK News content, including original reporting, investigations, and analyses by our team of DPRK experts. Subscribe now All major cards accepted. No commitments – you can cancel any time. © Korea Risk Group. All rights reserved. No part of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission from Korea Risk Group. Get the Daily Update Start your day with the North Korea stories that matter most – as selected by And how should we address you in correspondence? One more step! Please check your inbox, for an email we just sent you, and click on the confirmation message in it to get subscribed to our Daily News Update. Trending

Analysis

North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.

History shows seemingly innocuous events can trigger political crisis, from the Arab Spring to collapse of Qing Dynasty

John Everard October 21, 2022

North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.

A North Korean mass games performance in Pyongyang on Sept. 19, 2011 | Image: Eric Lafforgue

Diplomatic analysts sometimes talk of tinderboxes and sparks. A tinderbox is a state that only just manages to continue in its present situation, usually either because its economy is too weak to support the demands placed upon it or because its political system is only just coping with the stresses it faces, or both.

Such states can continue for some time, but they are vulnerable to sparks — to events, usually unforeseen, that suddenly topple a political structure. The effect is often dramatic. States that may have appeared outwardly stable for a long time suddenly vanish or are plunged into chaos.

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