An era has ended. The dramatic events of the last three to four years, most recently Russia’s month-old invasion of Ukraine, have demonstrated that the post-Cold War order of the last 30-odd years is gone. Much of what seemed certain has evaporated, and many old assumptions are no longer relevant — including with North Korea.

It is a good time to reconsider the DPRK’s future prospects. How will it change in the next 20 or 40 years? There are several factors to consider.

First and most important is the U.S.-China rivalry. This conflict is reminiscent of the Cold War but