The North Korean elite witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern European state socialism. They saw what happened to the elites of East Germany who lost their state, and the violence that accompanied the revolution in Romania. However, they would be wise to also pay attention to what has happened in South Korean politics over the past three decades.

The fate of former South Korean Presidents serves as an objective lesson to the North Korean elite: surrendering nuclear weapons is dangerous, toppling your leader could provoke unrest, and a clamor for unification could put you in the hands of a capacious public and political elite happy to find villains and scapegoats. South Korea’s transitional justice process says the same: if your ancestors did something bad, then your assets are fair game.