Now that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump appear to have locked up the nominations of their respective parties, speculation has intensified about what their presidencies might actually mean for Asia policy in general and U.S. posture toward the Korean Peninsula in particular.

A number of constraints limit any such exercise, including above all the substantial uncertainty about where North Korea will be come January 20, 2017. But the uncertainties are wider still. Candidates take positions in primaries that are designed to appeal to co-partisans, and it is well known that they subsequently pivot both in the general election and once in office. Donald Trump in particular has made statements that are so far outside the bipartisan consensus on Asia policy that it is doubtful that he would be able to implement them even if elected. This is no cause for comfort, however, since the process of his on-the-job training would introduce substantial uncertainty into our relations with the region.