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Ha-young Choi
Ha-young Choi was an NK News correspondent based in Seoul. She studied Korean history, mainly focusing on modern Korean history at Korea University. Follow her on twitter @Hy_Choi0826
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Evergreen Can we expect an anti-unification political fringe to emerge in S. Korea?Can dwindling public support for unification evolve into firm political opposition? Ha-young Choi November 23, 2015 NK News Koreans dream an expensive dream. In it, North and South Korea are one people, one nation, united under one state. If it happened peacefully, China and Japan would suddenly have a new neighbor of 70 million people, home to some of the world’s most dynamic technological innovators with a new labor base. But the expense comes from the wide gulf that has emerged between the two over their decades of separation: North Korea is decades behind its Southern neighbor technologically, there is a vast gulf between it and the South in standard of living, and the price tag for ameliorating that gap is projected to run in the hundreds of billions. In Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party arose in the 1980s and came to power in the ‘00s, advocating an authentic identity for Taiwan separate from mainland China. Anxiety over the European Union’s struggles has empowered a number of anti-EU parties, including the UK Independence Party and France’s National Front. As young South Koreans grow skeptical of unification’s promises, is there the chance of such a movement coming to power? A panel of experts told NK News that, as the quest for unification has been an overarching part of Korean identity for so long – it’s even enshrined in South Korea’s constitution – an anti-unification party is not all that likely. And if were to come to power, and the desire to unify no longer underpinned inter-Korean relations, North Korea’s reaction would also change – and not for the better. In part 22 of a major new NK News expert interview series, established and rising Pyongyang watchers from the Republic of Korea outlined their thoughts on the prospects anti-unification sentiment emerging in the South.
Additional reporting: R. York Q22) How long do you think it is until we see a fringe political party emerging that openly advocates against unification? What will be the impact of such an event, should it happen? In South Korea, it would be hard to see the rise of new political party that officially opposes the unification of two Koreas. Individuals can oppose unification freely, but should the party do the same, it would be a direct violation of the current South Korean Constitution. Also, the rise of such a party in South Korea would spark a whole new level of discussion regarding unification policy. As of now, in South Korean politics there is not much benefit that a party can achieve by publicly opposing unification. There is a very low chance of the rise of a South Korean party that mainly concentrates on unification, and even if were to rise, they would want to support unification to strengthen the party, not to oppose it and weaken the party. Though a majority of South Korea’s young generation population might be nonchalant about unification, politically opposing it is an entirely different discussion.
The negative perspective about unification is increasing. Some young South Koreans are opposing to the unification or think it is unnecessary. It shows the potential of new political group emerging, which will represent these people. However, frankly speaking, it seems difficult to believe that this political party will emerge for a while. First, until now, a prevalently large number of Koreans regard unification as a duty. Secondly, the negative public opinion on unification is very flexible. It means that opinion on unification changes as inter-Korean relations change. Thirdly, existing political groups and opinion leaders won’t easily accept an anti-unification political party. Furthermore, the South Korean Constitution defines an endeavor for peaceful unification as a duty of the president. Even if an anti-unification political party is successfully organized, it is not clear that it can deal with inter-Korean issues, which are very much tied to domestic politics in South Korea. Currently, inter-Korean relations are a critical variable in domestic politics, and political parties must suggest their position and policy based on them. They can express anti-unification perspectives, but cannot disregard policy toward North Korea. At least for a while, it seems so. There is no political force that opposes unification because the prospect of unification is not quite real. The rise of a political party solely based on its opposition to unification is not yet realistic, but one should acknowledge the fact that there is a growing undercurrent in the South Korean society that is skeptical of unification, even if it is absorption by the South. Outright political opposition would grow exponentially as unification becomes less like the one by absorption and more like the unification as equals. But since the latter is clearly not a realistic scenario, I will focus on unification by absorption. The reason for the growing skepticism is mainly economic, as there is a wide gap between the living standards of the two Koreas, and it would require decades of massive transfers from the South to North to bridge that gap. This resource transfer will be borne by the younger generation rather than the older generation, and the former is also less attached to the romantic notion of unification. The young form the bulk of those skeptical of sudden and complete unification of two Koreas as envisaged by the nationalistic perspective.
But it does not mean that the younger generation is skeptical of unification per se, only that younger Koreans are more realistic about the costs of unification than their parents. While some in South Korean society could indeed be in opposition to unification of any sort, it would resonate more socially and politically if those in opposition to unification employed sound economic arguments. And they will in order to gain mainstream appeal. If unification becomes more probable, then there could be political forces that argue for more equitable burden-sharing in the South and less benefit for the Northerners. This basic argument could play out in many different ways, but the opposition would largely rest on the speed of integration of the two Koreas. An extreme fringe party (even though extreme) will have to argue plausibly that it favors economic integration based on trade but not a political union. Yet this would require a constitutional amendment on the part of ROK because its constitution defines the geographic limits of the ROK as the entire peninsula. South Korea continues to hold public surveys every year and recently people in their 20s and 30s have questioned the need for reunification. In the past, due to unification education and myth homogeneity, we have said that our sole wish is the reunification of our country. But such opportunities are rare for the younger generation. There are many people in their 20s and 30s that have given up dating, marriage, childbirth and the possibility of owning a house and we have come up with a new name for these younger people, such as the “five-give-up generation” and “seven-give-up” generation. Their dissatisfaction will just continue to build up. During such times, there is a tendency for a radical right wing to appear. When these right-wingers show their hatred for North Korea and opposition to the unification of the Korean Peninsula, it will lead to the Korean society taking steps towards a dangerous society. It seems unlikely that such a radical political party will succeed in the early stages as they would be met with strong homogeneous national consciousness, but politics is an art of possibility and it is difficult to predict what will happen in the near decade or so.
The only way to prevent the emergence of such a radical party would be for the South Korean government and society to expand their ability to overcome the threats to the economy as well as develop a policy that prepares more opportunities and improves the quality of life for these younger generations. The South Korean constitution states that Korea aims for peaceful unification. Article 69 of the South Korean constitution and the president’s oath of inauguration clearly states the path towards peaceful unification. “I am sworn to follow the constitution, protect the nation and head forward for peaceful unification and the freedom of citizens …” So I have not deeply thought of a political party that would officially object to unification. But looking at the rise of Donald Trump and the UK’s extreme right wing party UKIP, an unstable future, age of limitless competition and selfishness can be factors contributing to the possible rise of such extreme ideologies. Should such a party rises in South Korea, it would only increase the cost of national defense to deter provocation and threats from North Korea. Official opposition to unification would only help North Korea speak more loudly of their anti-South Korea propaganda, deepening the distrust between the two Koreas. It would also contribute to making North Korea head for even more extreme measures of provocation and further development of missiles and nuclear weapons. Reunification is a supreme task of the Korean race and there is a wide range of support from the public, so it will be impossible to establish a political party that is against reunification because the party will not last long. It is difficult to establish a political party that does not have support from its people. Main picture: NK News Koreans dream an expensive dream. In it, North and South Korea are one people, one nation, united under one state. If it happened peacefully, China and Japan would suddenly have a new neighbor of 70 million people, home to some of the world’s most dynamic technological innovators with a new labor base. Become a member for less
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Ha-young Choi was an NK News correspondent based in Seoul. She studied Korean history, mainly focusing on modern Korean history at Korea University. Follow her on twitter @Hy_Choi0826
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